REPORT

A New Climate for Peace

Taking Action on Climate and Fragility Risks

This independent report, commissioned by the G7 members, identifies seven compound climate-fragility risks that pose serious threats to the stability of states and societies in the decades ahead. Based on a thorough assessment of existing policies on climate change adaptation, development cooperation and humanitarian aid, and peacebuilding, the report recommends that the G7 take concrete action, both as individual members and jointly, to tackle climate-fragility risks and increase resilience to them.

BLOG

Resilience Compass

When climate change exacerbates conflicts and crises, resilience must be the compass for foreign policy. The Resilience Compass features news, reflections and opinions on climate change and fragility, with contributions from the Wilson Center’s New Security Beat, International Alert and guest authors.

RESOURCES

Factbook, Readings, Events

This collection of resources complements and extends the analysis of the report. It contains an interactive factbook allowing users to explore case studies from around the world and provides background readings and contextualized report and event summaries.

Thematic Reading

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A New Climate for Peace

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All infographics of the report

Additional conceptual and topical infographics illustrating climate and fragility interactions can be downloaded for your use. Please credit adelphi and newclimateforpeace.org.

Pressures and shocks are expected to increase in the future

Sources:

  • Cincotta, Richard 2012: Population aging: a demographic and geographic overview. Retrieved 10 Dec 2014, from http://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2012/08/population-aging-a-demographic-and-geographic-overview/.
  • IEA 2014: World energy investment outlook. Paris: IEA.
  • Kharas, Homi and Geoffrey Gertz 2010: The new global middle class: a crossover from west to east. In: Li, Cheng (ed.): China’s emerging middle class: beyond economic transformation. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
  • Lagarde, Christine 2014: A new multilateralism for the 21st century: the Richard Dimbleby lecture. Retrieved 10 Dec 2014, from https://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2014/020314.htm.
  • Lee, Bernice; Felix Preston; Jaakko Kooroshy; Rob Bailey and Glada Lahn 2012: Resources futures. London: Royal Institute of International Affairs.
  • OECD 2013: Fragile states 2013: resource flows and trends in a shifting world. Paris: OECD.
  • UK MoD 2014: Strategic trends programme: global strategic trends - out to 2045. Shrivenham: UK Ministry of Defence.
  • UN-DESA 2014: World urbanization prospects: The 2014 revision. New York: United Nations.
  • US NIC 2012: Global trends 2030: alternative worlds. Retrieved 09 Jan 2015, from https://globaltrends2030.files.word-press.com/2012/11/global-trends-2030-november2012.pdf.
Planetary boundaries

Adapted from Steffen, Will et al. 2015: Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet. In: Science 347:6223.

Climate-risks are cross-cutting

Sources:

  • IPCC 2014: Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • UN-Water 2007: Coping with water scarcity: challenge of the twenty-first century. Geneva: United Nations.
  • WFP and Met Office 2012: Climate impacts on food security and nutrition. A review of existing knowledge. Exeter: WFP; Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.
From fragility to resilience

Sources:

  • Bellina, Séverine; Dominique Darbon; Stein Sundstol Eriksen and Jacob Ole Sending 2009: The legitimacy of the state in fragile situations. Oslo: Norad/ French Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs.
  • OECD 2008: Concepts and dilemmas of state building in fragile situations. Paris: OECD.
  • OECD 2013: Fragile states 2013: resource flows and trends in a shifting world. Paris: OECD.
Situations of fragility

Sources:

Rain-fed agriculture and conflicts

Sources:

  • International Crisis Group 2014a: The security challenges of pastoralism in Central Africa. Brussels: International Crisis Group.
  • International Crisis Group 2014b: Water pressures in Central Asia. Brussels: International Crisis Group.
  • Stanfield, J. D.; Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili; Safar, M.Y. and Akram Salam 2013: Community documentation of land tenure and its contribution to state-building in Afghanistan. In: Unruh, John; Williams, Rhodri (eds.): Land and post-conflict peacebuilding. Oxon: Routledge/Earthscan.
Risk factors around natural resources

Sources:

  • AfDB 2014b: From fragility to resilience: managing natural resources in fragile states in Africa. Tunis: African Development Bank Group.
  • FAO 2000: Conflict and natural resources management. Rome: FAO.
  • Rüttinger, Lukas; Antoine Morin; Annabelle Houdret; Dennis Tänzler and Clementine Burnley 2011a: Water, crisis and climate change assessment framework. Berlin: Adelphi.
Fragility hotspots

Adapted from Harris, Katie; David Keen and Tom Mitchell 2013: When disasters and conflict collide: improving links between disaster resilience and conflict prevention. London: Overseas Development Institute (ODI).

The commodity super-cycle

Data from IMF 2014: IMF primary commodity prices. Retrieved 8 Jan 2015, from http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.aspx.

Global food crises

Sources:

Heat map: Where is the highest risk of water conflict?

Map reproduced from Peek, Katie 2014: Where will the world’s water conflicts erupt? A heatmap of war over water. In: Popular Science: The Water Issue, June 2014. Retrieved 10 Dec 2014, from http://www.popsci.com/article/science/where-will-worlds-water-conflicts-erupt-infographic?src=SOC&dom=tw. Map based on the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database by the Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University.

Seven compound climate-fragility risks threaten states and societies
Survey insights: Is our risk analysis shared by decision-makers and foreign policy practitioners?
An integrated agenda for resilience
Survey insights: Existing initiatives and policies
Humanitarian disaster response: How to ‘do no harm’

Sources:

  • Alexander, Rajan 2006: Tsunami: build back better. Mantra aside, an aid gone wrong story? Bangalore: Development Consultancy Group.
  • Street, A. 2012: Applying conflict-sensitive methodologies in rapid-onset emergencies. In: Humanitarian Exchange Magazine 1:54, pp n.a.
  • UNEP and OCHA 2014: Environment and humanitarian action, increasing effectiveness, sustainability and accountability. Geneva: Joint UNEP/OCHA Environment Unit.
ODA recipients 2011

Source: OECD 2014: Fragile states 2014: domestic revenue mobilisation in fragile states. Paris: OECD.

Identifying effective interventions

Adapted from World Bank 2015: World development report 2015: mind, society, and behavior. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Recommendations: A new commitment for resilience